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ERISA , Fiduciary

Factors Influencing Future Returns

By Louis Harvey
September 16, 2021

It is a natural reaction for institutions and individuals to want to find out how much money their investments have earned or lost. This holds the investment community accountable and is an important requirement of successful investing.

However, over-consideration of an investment’s past gains and losses lead to actions with the expectation that gains will be repeated and losses avoided. The actions are often counterproductive.

This article advocates for ending reliance on past returns to make investment decisions.

The following factors, collectively, are generally considered to be superior to past performance as predictors of investment returns.


For an Investment Being Evaluated

    • Investment objectives or policies
    • Skill, experience and tenure of managers and research teams
    • Investment methodology
    • Investment style
    • Closures, mergers, reorganization
    • Fees and expenses
    • Organizational changes
    • Asset growth or shrinkage

For All Investments

    • Asset class
    • Market capitalization
    • Applicable inventions, discoveries, technological breakthroughs
    • Government actions, laws, regulations
    • Economy, economic policies
    • Consumer interests and demand
 
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About Author
Louis Harvey

Founder and leader of DALBAR, Lou Harvey is relentless in the search for the forces that are shaping the world of financial services today, tomorrow and for years hence. Using DALBAR' s research capabilities, Lou Harvey seeks insights from inside and outside the industry to understand and anticipate changes in customers’ needs and the ways products are distributed. Under his leadership, DALBAR is now recognized and respected in the financial services community for its credibility, independence and its contributions in raising the level of excellence in the industry. Fiercely committed to delivering value to customers, Lou Harvey has proved through DALBAR that the business principle of putting the customer first does work. In the spring of 2010 Lou Harvey was named President of the Fiduciary Standards Board, an organization dedicated to maintaining fiduciary standards and communicating the inherent value of fiduciary relationships to the public at large. Lou Harvey has held governance positions at a number of institutions including the National Association of Securities Dealers, Federal Reserve Bank, Bentley College and Plymouth Plantation. Lou Harvey was born in Puerto Barrios, Guatemala in 1942. He earned a bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of the West Indies.

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